To analyze the association between dengue incidence and climate in the Caribbean islands, focusing on seasonal to interannual climatic variability due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Geographic Areas

The study sites are the 21 member countries of the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC): Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, Turks & Caicos.

Data Collection - Retrospective/Prospective

This retrospective study uses entomological, epidemiological and climatological field data collected in the 21 member countries of CAREC for the last 15 years.

The leader of the research team is Dr. A. Anthony Chen, Professor of Applied Physics in the University of the West Indies at Mona in Kingston, Jamaica. He works in collaboration with Dr. Samuel C. Rawlins, a scientist at the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre in Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago.

Dr. Chen leads a team of climatologists and epidemiologists in developing the climate database and carrying out the data analysis.

The team obtained additional funding from AIACC in 2002 to extend the work. 

References

Focks DA, Daniels E, Haile DG, Deesling LE. 1995. A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: Literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 53: 489-506.

Gubler DJ, Clark GG. 1995. Dengue and haemorrhagic fever: the emergence of a global health problem. Emerging Infectious Diseases 1: 55 -57.

IPCC. 1998. The regional impacts of climate change: An assessment of vulnerability. A special report of IPCC Working Group II, [Watson, R.T., M.C. Zinyowera and R.H. Moss (eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 518 pp.

Koopman JS, Prevots DR, Marin MAV, Dantes HG, Aquino MLZ, Longini IM, Jr., Amor JS. 1991. Determinants and predictors of dengue infection in Mexico. American Journal of Epidemiology 133: 1168-1178.

Malmgren BA, Winter A, Chen D. 1998. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation control of climate in Puerto Rico. Journal of Climate 11: 2713-2717.

Poveda G, Graham NE, Epstein PR, Rojas W, Quiñones ML, Velez ID, Martens WJM. 2000. Climate and ENSO variability associated with vector-borne diseases in Colombia. In: El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts (Diaz HF, Markgraf V, eds.), Cambridge, pp.183-204.

Rawlins S. 1999: Emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases in the Caribbean region. West Indian Med. J. 48 (4): 252 -253.

WHO. 2000. Climate Variability and Change and their Health Effects in Pacific Island Countries, Apia, Samoa, 25-28 July 2000: workshop report. WHO/SDE/OEH/01.1

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Funding Institution 

Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) initiative, implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme and co-executed by the Global Change SysTem for Analysis Research and Training (START) and the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) http://www.start.org/Projects/AIACC_Project/aiacc.html

Project Summary

Research Objectives

To determine the extent of the association between climate and the incidence of dengue across the Caribbean region and the dominance of this linkage in comparison to other linkages.

To identify and evaluate adaptive options to ameliorate the impact of climate on dengue.

To use the knowledge gained above to determine future impacts and adaptation based on global change scenarios.

To make the knowledge gained accessible and useful to decision-makers.

Geographic Areas

The study sites for general observations are the 21 member countries of the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC): Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, Turks & Caicos. Four countries - Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago and St. Kitts - are targeted for more specific studies. 

Data Collection/Retrospective - Prospective

The study design is both retrospective over the past 15 years and prospective over 2 1/2 years. The project will construct climate and dengue indicators for the Caribbean region.

Methodology

The effort involves five main tasks:

• Analysis of the epidemiological patterns of dengue fever and its vectors in relation to climate. 
  
• Downscaling future projections of climate for the Caribbean from model outputs using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 
  
• Analysis of impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change-induced dengue using climate projections, socio-economic information and knowledge gathered from the database analyses. 
  
• Design a pilot project for Jamaica to implement an integrated system capable of monitoring vector and disease, forecasting climate and dengue incidence, and undertaking diagnostics and adaptation applications for the near term (next 10 years). 
  
• Evaluate adaptation strategies for the longer term based on knowledge and experience gained during the project.

This project developed from the original IAI-funded project. 

Research Team

The co-Principal Investigators are Anthony Chen, Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Jamaica and Samuel Rawlins, Caribbean Epidemiology Centre.

For more information about this project, see http://wwwphysics.uwimona.edu.jm:1104/RESEARCH/csg/csgm/aiaccsis06.html