Study Projects


Climate Variability and Human Health Impacts in Brazil

Research Results – 2003/01
Research Results – 2002/09

Funding Institution

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research
http://www.iai.int

Project Summary

Brazil's research project consists of three distinct subprojects with different objectives and methodologies. Each subproject is described separately.

Subproject 1
 
Research Objectives  

To analyze the association between malaria incidence and climate in Brazil, focusing on seasonal to interannual climatic variability due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation.  

Geographic Areas 

Different parts of the subproject are in different study sites. One retrospective study of malaria incidence is in the Brazilian state of Amazonas and its municipality of Lábrea. Another study site is the Brazilian state of Roraima. Malaria incidence is high in these areas and they are affected by climatic variability due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation. The areas provide ecological contrasts that permit comparisons of the effect of climatic variability. The availability of good data is another factor in the selection of these study sites.
 
Data Collection - Retrospective/Prospective
 
The studies in the state of Amazonas and the municipality of Lábrea are strictly retrospective using data of malaria incidence from the records of the National Health Foundation, Ministry of Health. The time series of malaria cases for Amazonas is 30 years long. The time series of malaria cases for Lábrea is 20 years long. Since rainfall in the Amazon Basin is the key weather variable related to variations in malaria incidence, rainfall data are obtained at the National Institute for Meteorology (INMET).
 
The study in the state of Roraima relies on 20 years of time series data on malaria cases. This study is larger in scope than the study in Amazonas, using additional non-climatic variables and applying retrospective and prospective methods of investigation. The non-climatic variables are 

  • Land cover changes - these will be analyzed through the study of satellite images for the period 1983 - 2003
  • Human demographic factors, especially migration

Methodology
 
The effort for Amazonas and Lábrea involves two main scientific tasks:

  • Collection and validation of time series data.
  • Analysis of the relationships among time series data for epidemiological and climatological variables. The analysis of the role played by climate/weather variation shall provide important insights to the construction of data bases and prediction potential.

The following steps are followed in the particular region of the state of Roraima.

  • Compile the malaria cases and classify them according to the ecoregional approach similar to that developed for malaria vectors by Rubio-Palis & Zimmerman (1997). Field trips for sampling vector populations are made in selected areas.
  • Compile time series data on precipitation obtained from the National Department for Water and Electricity (DNAEE) and INMET.
  • Analyze the temporal changes in patterns of land cover, especially deforestation for settlements, agriculture and mining, by comparing satellite images with a GIS approach.

Two different ecoregions in the state - tropical rain forest, savanna - are the locale for the investigation both retrospectively and prospectively, using images from the same date for every other year (Landsat 5 TM for 1983-2003). These changes represent modifications in land use practices and also reflect indirectly human population migrations.

For the period 1999-2003 additional images are obtained from the Satellite SPOT-3 for the peak dry and peak rainy season - 2 images per year for every year. This shows the status of water bodies and the vegetation (Vegetation Index) which are related to precipitation/humidity and therefore to vector breeding places.

These findings are correlated with field data on vector populations and malaria incidence.

  • Evaluate demographic changes during the period, particularly population density and migration rates.
  • Assess factors affecting vulnerability to the health effects of climate variability:

ethnicity
subsistence patterns
land use practices
income
place and time of residence
literacy

  • Perform a multifactorial statistical analysis including the disease and the social/environmental variables.

Research Team

The leader of the research team is Dr. Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri, Professor of Public Health at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He leads a team of epidemiologists in collecting the data and carrying out the data analysis.

References
 
Rubio-Palis Y, Zimmerman RH. 1997. Ecoregional classification of malaria vectors in the Neotropics. J Med Entomol 34 (5): 499-510.
 

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Subproject 2

Research Objectives

To incorporate climate/weather data into the analysis of the impact of malaria and leishmaniasis in diverse ecoregions, ethnic groups and land use patterns in Brazil.
 
To examine if an ecoregional approach to the classification of disease and its vectors provides a clearer view of the disease patterns than the pattern presented by political boundaries.

Geographic Areas

The study site is the Brazilian state of Roraima. The incidence of malaria and leishmaniasis is high in this state and it is affected by climatic variability due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Roraima provides ecological and social contrasts that permit comparisons of the effect of climatic variability. Linkage with a study that is jointly funded by the Brazilian National Health Foundation and the Pan American Health Organization is an important factor in the selection of this site.

Data Collection - Retrospective/Prospective

This is a prospective study that collects data on cases of malaria and leishmaniasis as well as data on various risk factors related to classic receptivity and vulnerability to disease transmission. This study also collects entomological data on malaria vectors.

Methodology

The analysis of data examines relative risk and follows a standard epidemiological approach to estimate the contribution of various risk factors to disease incidence. The analysis of the aggregation and clustering of disease cases, vector presence, abundance, and distribution is carried out using spatial statistics.

Research Team

The leader of the research team is Dr. Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri, Professor of Public Health at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He leads a team of epidemiologists and entomologists in collecting the data and carrying out the data analysis.

References
 
Rubio-Palis Y, Zimmerman RH. 1997. Ecoregional classification of malaria vectors in the Neotropics. J Med Entomol 34 (5): 499-510.
 

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Subproject 3
 
Research Objectives  

To analyze the association between dengue incidence and climate in Brazil, focusing on seasonal to interannual climatic variability due to El Niño/Southern Oscillation.  

Geographic Areas

The study sites are six cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants in Brazil in three different climatic regions of the country. Dengue is primarily an urban problem. The different climatic regions permit comparisons of the effect of climate variability. The availability of good data is another factor in the selection of these study sites.

Data Collection - Retrospective/Prospective

This is a retrospective/prospective study analyzing dengue fever cases for the period 1986-2003. Since dengue fever is essentially an urban disease, population density, habitation types, litter disposal practices and other anthropogenic influences are examined along with climate/weather data.

Methodology

The effort involves two main scientific tasks:
  • Collection and validation of time series data.
  • Analysis of the relationships among time series data for epidemiological, climatological and social variables with stratification by ecological area. The analysis of the role played by climate/weather variation shall provide important insights to the construction of data bases and prediction potential.

Research Team

The leader of the research team is Dr. Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri, Professor of Public Health at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He leads a team of epidemiologists in collecting the data and carrying out the data analysis.
 
References

Focks DA, Daniels E, Haile DG, Deesling LE. 1995. A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: Literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 53: 489-506.
 
Gubler DJ, Clark GG. 1995. Dengue and haemorrhagic fever: the emergence of a global health problem. Emerging Infectious Diseases 1 : 55 -57
 
Hales S et al. 1996. Dengue fever epidemics in the South Pacific: driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation? Lancet 348:1664-1665.
 
Kuno G. 1995. Review of the factors modulating dengue transmission. Epidemiol Rev 17 (2): 321-335.
 

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Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Brazilian Population to the Health Impacts of Climate Change

Funding Institution

Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology, Global Climate Change Research Division (CTBrasil) http://www.mct.gov.br/clima

Project Summary

Research Objectives

To undertake a regional assessment of the vulnerability of the Brazilian population to the health impacts of climate change.

Geographic Areas

All states/regions of Brazil, with case studies from 5 metropolitan areas: Belém, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Itajaí and Blumenau.

Data Collection/Retrospective - Prospective

This retrospective study uses epidemiological, socioeconomic and climatological data. Health data from the period 1996-2001 will be used as well as social data from the 2000 national census.

Methodology

Apply an "Exposure-Response" Social Vulnerability Conceptual Model.

Construct a matrix with environmental data, incidence of climate-sensitive endemic infectious diseases (malaria, cholera, leptospirosis, dengue fever, leishmaniasis and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), as well as social and climatic data at the State level, in order to calculate the Vulnerability Index for each State and for the five regions of the country.

Research Team

The research team is led by Prof. Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri at PMAGS/FIOCRUZ in collaboration with Diana P. Marinho (MSc, cartography), Mariana Gomez (MSc, epidemiology) and Teresa C. Neves (MSc, communication). PMAGS/FIOCRUZ is the Program for Global Environmental Change and Health at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Other collaborating institutions are the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) and the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

References

Blaikie P et al. 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People´s Vulnerability and Disasters. Routledge, London.

Bolivia, MDSP. 2000. Vulnerabilidad y adaptacion de la salud humana ante los efectos del cambio climatico en Bolivia. PNUD(UNDP)/GEF.
 
USGCRP. 2000. Climate Change Impacts on the United States. The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Overview. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge,UK.

Watts MJ, Bohle HG. 1993. The space of vulnerability: the causal structure of hunger and famine. Prog Human Geogr 17 (1): 43-67.
 
 
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Vulnerability to Dengue Fever in Uruguay

Funding Institution

International Development Research Center (IDRC)
http://www.idrc.ca

Project Summary

Research Objectives

To map the vulnerability of Uruguay to the possible occurrences of climate-driven dengue outbreaks.

Geographic Areas

All regions of Uruguay.

Data Collection/Retrospective - Prospective

This retrospective study uses epidemiological, socioeconomic and climatological data.

Methodology

Apply an "Exposure-Response" Social Vulnerability Conceptual Model.  A diagram of this model appears on this website in an image format or a powerpoint format.

Research Team

The research team is led by Prof. Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri and Mariana Gomez. This is a joint project of FIOCRUZ in Brazil and the School of Medicine of the National University in Uruguay.

References

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Development of Complex Indicators for the Evaluation, Modeling and Predictions of the Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Human Health

Funding Institution

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research
Small Grant Program
http://www.iai.int

Project Summary

Research Objectives

To develop complex indicators for climatic conditions that can predict the impact of climate-sensitive diseases in Cuba, Brazil and Bolivia.

Geographic Areas

All regions of Cuba, Brazil and Bolivia.

Data Collection/Retrospective - Prospective

This retrospective study uses epidemiological, socioeconomic and climatological data.

Methodology

Cuba has developed a Bioclimatological Monitoring System that uses climatic predictions for the prevention and control of disease.  The aim is to generalize this system for application to other countries in the Americas.

Research Team

The research team is led by Paulo Ortiz Bultó at the Climate Center of the Meteorological Institute in Havana, Cuba. The collaborators are Prof. Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri at FIOCRUZ/Brazil and Marilyn Aparicio at the Ministry of Health in Bolivia.

References

Ortiz Bultó, Paulo L. 2003. Impacts of climate change and variability on some diseases in the tropical region: An example of the strategies for adaptation to climate variability and change.  In: Climate Change and Variability and their Health Effects in the Caribbean: Information for Adaptation Planning in the Health Sector (Aron JL, Corvalan CF, Philippeaux H, eds.), World Health Organization, Geneva.

For more information about this project, see
http://www.iai.int/sci-f-sgp.htm
 

 
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